So far, the names you hear most frequently as potential opponents for Bill Cassidy in 2026 are State Treasurer John Fleming, who has already announced he’s running, Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, and Congressman Clay Higgins.

Any one of them, in a head-to-head matchup with Cassidy, is more than capable of knocking off the incumbent. Let’s face it, Cassidy has made his name poison with the people of Louisiana and particularly among the state’s Republicans.

That makes Cassidy’s re-election fairly problematic.

Because in the aftermath of Cassidy’s dunderheaded decision to vote for an impeachment of Donald Trump in the wake of the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot, which evidence available at the time and far more available since has shown was much more the fault of Nancy Pelosi than it was of Trump, Louisiana has changed how it runs its federal elections in a way that does not benefit Cassidy.

We brought in closed party primaries, complete with a runoff.

This is something Bill Cassidy categorically did not want and screamed his opposition to when the state legislature passed it earlier this year. But nobody was listening to Bill Cassidy, because he had made himself poison with the voters thanks to that impeachment vote.

And now, in order to be re-elected, Cassidy is going to have to convince a majority of Republican voters that he’s the best representative of their views.

This doesn’t seem possible.

And though Fleming is already in the race, he won’t be the only one. Will Skrmetta or Higgins be next?

What about Blake Miguez?

The conventional wisdom has it that Higgins will run for the Senate and then Miguez will run for Higgins’ congressional seat.

But we wouldn’t be all that surprised to see Miguez leap over Higgins and go for the Senate brass ring.

Here’s what isn’t speculation: Blake Miguez is ready to run for something at the federal level. There is no doubt he’s ready for Congress or the Senate. He’s been in elective politics for going on a decade now, and in that time he’s made himself one of the most respected and charismatic politicians Louisiana has. Everybody includes Miguez when they talk about the up-and-comers on the state political scene.

And for a reason.

Miguez has spent that decade polishing up a resume as one of the most consistent conservative fighters Louisiana has. He’s a founding member of the Louisiana Freedom Caucus and perhaps the state’s leading defender of the Second Amendment (with a deserved mention to Rep. Danny McCormick, to be sure). Miguez has gone to war for fiscal sanity, for election integrity, against woke insanity, against street crime and for school choice. He even got into a scrape last month with Gov. Jeff Landry over Miguez’ demand that tax reform be paid for with budget cuts rather than sales tax rate hikes. Miguez didn’t win that fight on policy, as the Legislature ended up raising the sales tax rate to five cents, but the fact he engaged in it in the first place served notice that he’s a political force in his own right.

OK, so he’s growing large enough to move up. But how does this work? Is Miguez really going to run for the Senate if Higgins does?

No.

But Higgins hasn’t announced for the Senate yet. And this is where it gets interesting.

Because if you’re Miguez, what you don’t want is to wait and allow, say, Skrmetta or somebody like a John Schroder or Sharon Hewitt (I have no information that either of them are considering a run; I’m just using them as examples), or even Miguez’ fellow state senator Caleb Kleinpeter whose name has circulated a little, to get in while you’re holding off and giving Higgins time to decide.

That puts you in a position of sitting on pause and hoping Higgins gets into the Senate race so you can then run for Higgins’ seat.

A more strategic move would be for Miguez to announce for the Senate, and then if Higgins later runs for the Senate then Miguez can shift gears and run for the House.

Don’t be surprised if that’s how this plays out.

But if Higgins stays where he is, how would Miguez stack up as a Senate candidate?

The scrap with Landry could make a Miguez candidacy even more interesting. Landry and Higgins are allies, as Higgins and Miguez have been allies (Higgins is a member of the House Freedom Caucus in Congress, as our readers know). Does Miguez repair things with Landry and then run for the Senate with Landry’s blessing and/or endorsement? If so, and Higgins stays put, Miguez would then be a very strong candidate.

Or does he run without Landry’s blessing and position himself to the right of Landry?

And if it’s Miguez and Fleming jockeying for the position of lead opponent to Cassidy, how would that stack up?

The thing about Miguez is that he’s Generation X. He isn’t a boomer like Cassidy, who’s 67, or Fleming, who’ll be 75 on Election Day in 2026. Higgins and Skrmetta are both in their early 60’s as well. All of those guys are fairly well preserved, but Miguez can sell himself as potentially giving 25 years to the Senate and locking himself in as a leader for the state the way Mike Johnson and Steve Scalise have done in the House.

And that might be a trump card for him. We’re seeing younger candidates emerge all over Louisiana’s higher-end elections; the state legislature is a lot younger than it used to be, and Landry and Insurance Commissioner Tim Temple are both Generation X. The guard is changing for sure.

It’s just a thought. We do know Miguez wants to move up, and the more obvious thing would be to run for the House when Higgins runs for the Senate. But Higgins not announcing for the Senate yet is opening up the possibility that Miguez might just go for a major leap, and if he does we would not discount him as a strong candidate against Cassidy.