Earlier this month, the election of independent Marshall Simien, Jr. as mayor of Lake Charles marked a curious deviation from recent electoral trends in Louisiana’s largest cities—where Republicans and white candidates have generally enjoyed success. His win may serve as a cautionary signal for both.

Simien defeated two-term Republican incumbent Nic Hunter in the May 3 runoff. While Hunter’s vote share barely budged from the March 29 general election, Simien essentially corralled support from all other candidates, erasing an 18-point deficit. Hunter is white; Simien, who previously served multiple terms on the City Council and made a mayoral bid in 2017, is black.

Until this election, Republicans had reached a high-water mark in controlling the executive offices of Louisiana’s ten most populated cities (including three consolidated with their parishes). While New Orleans had a Democrat as mayor, Baton Rouge, Shreveport, Lafayette, the newly incorporated St. George, Lake Charles, Kenner, and Bossier City—second through eighth in population—were all governed by Republicans. Monroe had an independent, and Alexandria a Democrat.

Interestingly, at that point, all these cities—except New Orleans—also had white mayors, even though Baton Rouge, Shreveport, Monroe, and Alexandria all have majority-black populations. Each of those mayors took office within the past five years, reflecting an unusual pattern of white electoral success in majority-black municipalities. (Baton Rouge’s included parish residents not in other cities)

As is typical in Louisiana major cities, whites disproportionately register to vote compared to blacks (except in Orleans, where they tend to be more at parity), and in Lake Charles for the most recent elections white slightly outnumbered blacks in the electorate.

Lake Charles followed this pattern as well. In 2017, Simien–running as a Democrat–narrowly missed the runoff while Hunter defeated another prominent black Democrat and retired judge, state Rep. Wilford Carter, Sr., in the runoff. In 2021, Hunter was easily reelected.

As in most major Louisiana cities, white voters in Lake Charles tend to register and turn out at higher rates than black voters (except in Orleans, where they tend to be more at parity), and in the latest election, whites slightly outnumbered blacks in the electorate.

Hunter’s main disadvantage this cycle was timing. In recent years, higher-stimulus contests have tended to boost Republican turnout disproportionately. The Mar. 29 primary featured only constitutional amendments and local races—dampening turnout to nearly half of what it had been during the recent presidential election. Worse, Democratic groups were better organized in opposing the amendments, giving them an edge.

Yet by many measures, Hunter’s tenure had been highly successful. After decades of population decline—from a peak of around 78,000 in the 1970s down to roughly 71,000 by 2010—Lake Charles rebounded under his leadership, surpassing 84,000 residents within three years. This growth fueled rising tax revenues and helped the city build the strongest balance sheet among major Louisiana cities, despite the fastest population growth. Its debt load remained far below that of its peers—even Bossier City, which saw little growth but has accumulated per-capita debt several times higher in the last twenty years. Lake Charles also kept its property tax among the lowest, and its sales tax rate in line with comparable cities.

So, despite arguably the best growth record of any large-city mayor in the state, Hunter couldn’t overcome demography and outside issues. Simien, though running as an independent this time—a strategic ploy to pick up unaware non-leftists—was effectively the Democratic candidate, backed by far-left political figures and interest groups and promoting a progressive platform that diverged from Hunter’s development-focused agenda. Make no mistake, he espoused solidly liberal issue preferences, some contrary to Hunter’s agenda that had brought such development success, and his identity as a black candidate energized the city’s majority-black electorate.

In retrospect, Hunter’s loss came the moment he failed to win outright in the primary. Turnout disparities played a decisive role: white turnout only slightly exceeded black turnout, and Democrat participation edged out Republican. The critical swing group—white Democrats—has increasingly leaned left in Louisiana, a trend likely to intensify under the state’s new closed primary system for federal and some state races.

And, strangely, Hunter may have been undone by his own success. Without a galvanizing issue, contented voters often tune out and stay home. By contrast, Simien rallied his black Democrat base by a redistributive pitch that majority black areas of the city had missed out on the city’s success. Runoff turnout hardly improved, but highly disproportionately favored blacks, and even white Democrats turned out in higher proportions than did white Republicans.

Unlike other recent cases, over the past five years, where white mayors won in majority-black cities, Hunter faced a tougher scenario. In these cities, white mayors took over from black predecessors whose tenures were marked by controversy or decline. Hunter, by contrast, was the incumbent presiding over growth in a city that had just crossed the majority-black threshold, and thus lacked a foil to run against, relative to previous city governance.

This may signal rough waters for these mayors, in that they may have limits to the kind of turnarounds needed to convince voters of their reelections. If Hunter’s strong track record couldn’t do it, others may face even steeper odds unless they can engineer dramatic turnarounds—or find ways to re-engage an electorate prone to disengagement amid success. That said, not all is bleak: Monroe’s independent mayor Friday Ellis improved on his original electoral showing in a successful reelection bid last year. Next up to the plate are Shreveport and Alexandria, both heading into elections next fall.