The diplomatic relationship between China and the US is complex, but there is an economic aspect that gives the US the upper hand. The Chinese Communist Party, like socialist autocracies through history, is able to maintain itself by keeping the people, and more importantly the military, in line. They have done this for the last fifty years or so by using the West’s philosophy of free trade and open markets against us; massive trade imbalances resulting from high demand for manufacturing for export to a West that gutted its own manufacturing base.The result, a Chinese middle class that is only one generation removed from poverty, and a well funded, massive military.

So here’s my perspective. Assuming that there is basic rational thought in CCP leadership, China can’t push the West too far or it risks sacrificing the prop that supports their socialist state. They can mess with the West, they can sabre rattle over Taiwan, that can support anti-Western countries, but should they go too far they risk the end of the Golden Goose. For a time the loss of Chinese manufacturing would hurt the West, but such a case would be an existential threat to the Communist Party.

I know diplomacy is far more complicated, but clearly it is Western, mostly US, surplus of trade that supports the CCP. Cut that out and they know it’s only a matter of time before social and military upheaval.

We don’t want to have use this threat, a peaceful world supported by fair trade (not just free trade) is a far more desirable scenario, but we should be acting to ensure that all of our options are available to us.