Elections for half of Caddo Parish’s executive offices will tell whether the dynamics of the 2022 Shreveport mayoral election signaled something new or was just a transient blip on the radar.

Last year, Republican Mayor Tom Arceneaux surprisingly defeated Democrat state Sen. Greg Tarver for the city’s top job. Not only did the city’s Democrat majority in the electorate provide enough defections to let Arceneaux post the win, but also a significantly higher proportion of blacks that typical did the same, a result especially unanticipated as Arceneaux is white and Tarver black.

While the contests for clerk of court and coroner this fall went unopposed for the incumbents, spirited battles seem ahead for sheriff and assessor, where in both instances long-time incumbents will step down. For different reasons, both will test, this time in a parish-wide setting (Shreveport voters comprise about three-quarters of the parish total) propensity for crossover voting that could benefit white Republican candidates as happened for Arceneaux.

The sheriff’s race features an interesting field. Black Democrat Henry Whitehorn, who has a long career in law enforcement including some high-profile offices but who most recently was chief administrative officer for Democrat former Mayor Adrian Perkins, is considered solidly in position to make the general election runoff. The other big favorite is white Republican former Shreveport Councilor John Nickelson, who doesn’t have a law enforcement background.

That lacking will be a negative for him. There’s much more to the job than just law enforcement, such as serving as the parish tax collector, but the vast bulk of employees and visible activity of the office is that. Many voters instinctively will assess that kind of background in vetting candidates.

Recent past history in parish-wide races also suggests Nickelson will be at a disadvantage because of this. In the last contest that Republican incumbent Steve Prator won easily, former constable Eric Hatfield, a white Democrat, and lawyer black Democrat Hersy Jones ran well behind him. Both are running again, although Hatfield switched his affiliation this time to Republican.

Jones was the only black Democrat in the field, and Hatfield the only white Democrat. Jones has no law enforcement experience while Hatfield was an elected constable, but in performing the duties of that office so controversially – eventually prompting the state Legislature to pass a law reining in his aggrandizement of the office – he lost reelection. Yet in 2019 Hatfield drew nearly twice the vote, 21 percent to 11 percent, that Jones did, even given Jones was the only black running in an electorate composed nearly halfway with black registrants. In other words, voters not wanting to vote for a white Republican were so impressed with Hatfield’s background (likely many not knowing of the controversy he stirred while in office that led to his losing reelection) that this overrode race for some voters even as they had another candidate of their race available for selection.

The other indicator indicating Whitehorn to be favored over Nickelson is the 2015 election for First Judicial District Attorney. In 2015, black Democrat James Stewart won over a white Republican by 10 percentage points, even though then whites held a three-point advantage in voter registration. This fall, it’s just over a percentage point.

Almost certainly Whitehorn and Nickelson will make the runoff. Hatfield’s and Jones’ proportions will fall precipitously, and Stewart’s 2020 opponent Democrat lawyer Pat Gilley, who is even farther to the left on crime issues than Stewart and more controversial than Hatfield, will receive a pittance. The only candidate with the potential to make a run is the other entrant, Republican Shayne Gibson, a veteran law enforcement officer now police chief of Greenwood, but he would need a lot of donations fast. But in a runoff, unless the dynamics of 2022 in Shreveport persist and parish-wide, Whitehorn remains the favorite.

Whatever trend emerges or recedes also will find confirmation in the assessor’s race. There, two top deputies of retiring Democrat Assessor Charles Henington vie with two others to succeed him. One is white Democrat Kristin Gonzalez and the other is white Republican Brett Frazier. Making the internecine battle even more interesting, two black Democrats also joined the fray, accountant and previous House candidate Reginald Johnson and Southern University Shreveport professor Regina Webb.

As this is such a low-information contest, the interplay of party and race should be fascinating to watch as these largely will determine voting behavior. White Republicans comprise 26 percent of the electorate, white Democrats under 9 percent, and black Democrats 36 percent.

Normally, this suggests that Frazier and one of Johnson or Webb would make the runoff. But assessor office experience will matter somewhat, and it’s interesting to see whether that would peel off enough votes to get Gonzalez into the runoff, which she would win. If not, along the lines of the dynamics in the sheriff’s race, a black Democrat would be expected to win the runoff, but Frazier’s assessor experience might allow him to abscond with a greater proportion of the black vote than such a candidate typically receives and enough for hm to win.

Thus, these two Caddo executive contests could provide fresh details on whether voter dynamics are shifting even slightly away from their past heavy emphasis on race.