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AND YET ANOTHER POLL: Harper Polling Has It Cassidy 47, Landrieu 45


The doom-and-gloom crowd who insist that Bill Cassidy can’t beat Mary Landrieu won’t like this survey a whole lot.

There are some fascinating responses in this survey, put together for ConservativeIntel.com by Harper Polling. It was conducted Wednesday and Thursday of last week, with 596 respondents and a 4.01 percent margin for error.

Cassidy leads Landrieu, 47-45 – with 8 percent undecided.

Two things are interesting about that number. First, Cassidy’s approval rating is 29-12, with an amazing 59 percent undecided. When he’s leading with three-fifths of the electorate not knowing enough about who he is to even have an opinion about him one way or the other, it’s an indication he’s got an excellent shot at the lion’s share of that eight percent.

And second, Mary’s ceiling could be pretty close to that 45. Her personal approval numbers…

Favorable…………………..45%
Unfavorable………………..41%
Not Sure……………………14%

Another set of numbers which don’t help her much are her job approval numbers…

Approve…………………..44%
Disapprove……………….37%
Not Sure………………….19%

And a third set of numbers that won’t do her much good…

Deserves Reelection……43%
Someone New……………46%
Not Sure…………………..11%

The poll threw both Rob Maness and Elbert Guillory into head-to-head matchups with Landrieu, and Guillory (whose approval rating is 11-17, with 72 percent not sure) ties her at 44 percent apiece while Maness (6-15, with 79 percent not sure) loses to her 47-41.

Landrieu doesn’t get above 47 percent against Maness, who four-fifths of the electorate doesn’t even know and who’s only viewed favorably by 29 percent of the respondents who do know him.

That means she’s got a ceiling. Perhaps she can push that ceiling over 50 percent, as she’s done in the three previous elections she’s managed to win by narrow margins, but right now that ceiling is closer to 45 percent than 50 percent.

Which is lousy news for Mary. It also means you can expect her to go horribly negative once this race really gets going.

Guillory isn’t going to run for the Senate; he’s a lot more likely to run for Lt. Governor in 2015. Maness is running, though, and this poll will aid people who say he shouldn’t be – because beating up on Cassidy really will help Mary according to these numbers.

Believe that if you choose. What seems true at this point, though, is that Mary will lose next fall if the opposition doesn’t muck it up.

Some other interesting numbers in the poll…

Q: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you prefer to vote for: the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?

Republican…………………42%
Democrat…………………..41%
Someone Else……………..5%
Not Sure…………………….12%

Now, I am going to read you a list of names. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each.

Q. Bobby Jindal

Favorable……………………35%
Unfavorable………………….51%
Not Sure…………………….14%

Q. Mitch Landrieu

Favorable…………………42%
Unfavorable………………28%
Not Sure………………….30%

Q. David Vitter

Favorable…………………47%
Unfavorable………………35%
Not Sure………………….18%

Q: In an election for Governor in 2015, who would you most likely support: David Vitter, Republican or Mitch Landrieu, Democrat?

Vitter………………………45%
Mitch Landrieu…………..43%
Not Sure………………….12%

Q: Do you want David Vitter to run for Governor in 2015?

Yes………………………..27%
No………………………….44%
Not Sure………………….29%

Q: In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely support: Bobby Jindal, Republican or Hillary Clinton, Democrat?

Jindal……………………..42%
Clinton……………………44%
Not Sure…………………15%

Q: Do you want Bobby Jindal to run for President in 2016?

Yes……………………….20%
No…………………………58%
Not Sure…………………22%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

Approve…………………….32%
Disapprove…………………60%
Not Sure…………………….8%

 

Q: Do you agree or disagree with the goals and objectives of the Tea Party?

Agree……………………………..39%
Disagree………………………….35%
Not Sure………………………….26%

Q: As you may know, Willie Robertson, star of the TV show Duck Dynasty is considering running for Congress. Do you think he should or should not run?

Yes he should run………………26%
No he should not run…………..41%
Not Sure………………………….33%

Q: Season 4 of A & E’s hit show Duck Dynasty kicks off this week. Who is your favorite Robertson Family Member?

Phil………………………………..21%
Miss Kay…………………………17%
Jase……………………………….13%
Si…………………………………..25%
Willie………………………………24%


2 Comments

  1. Tom Robinson says:

    All these polls are going to show it as a close race, which it actually probably is. But the reason they construct the polls in such a way to make it close is because politicians most feel the need to spend money with the media, polling firms, and consultants when it is close. Therefore, do not be surprised when they say……..it's close!

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