Ted Cruz will win Wisconsin on Tuesday, and potentially pick up all of its delegates – though that’s not certain.
That’s what a poll by Marquette University on the presidential primary, released today, says.
The Marquette University Law School released the results of its latest political poll on Wednesday, March 29th — and it comes ahead of the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday, April 5th.
The new poll finds Ted Cruz ahead in the Wisconsin GOP race — with 40% support to 30% for Donald Trump and 21% for John Kasich. It the February poll, Trump held the lead with 30%, Cruz and 19% and Kasich at 8%. Candidates who have since dropped out commanded 31% support at that time.
Poll director Charles Franklin said, “Cruz has been the real beneficiary” of the drop-outs in recent weeks.
Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49-45 on the Democrat side. The most underrated story in this entire presidential cycle is how while everybody assumes Hillary to be the nominee she doesn’t seem to be winning a whole lot of states.
What’s interesting about the poll is a couple of things. First, it was conducted from March 24-28, which was last Thursday through this Monday, so it doesn’t include the latest Michelle Fields-Corey Lewandowski stuff and what effect that might have, but it does include all the Heidi Cruz attacks and potentially some National Enquirer stuff. It also doesn’t include Scott Walker’s endorsement.
And second, the respondents were reached equally via land line and cell phones, so that could mean more accuracy in results than the typical land line polls.
Some interesting analysis from the pollster on Twitter…
"Cruz has been the real beneficiary" of changes since February, Franklin says. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
All prez and state Supreme Court results are for samples of likely voters, not all registered voters. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
Among likely voters in this poll, 54% said they will vote in the Republican prez primary, 46% in Democratic primary. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
Though Wisconsin is an open primary, it looks like there won’t be a whole lot of Democrat crossover since that primary looks competitive.
99% of Republicans say they will vote in GOP primary, with 1% voting in Dem race. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
Among Dems, 95% will vote in Dem race, 5% will cross over to Republican race. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
Among independents, including those who lean to either party, 60% say they’ll vote GOP, 40% Dem. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
Cruz leads in Wisconsin even though most voters think Trump will ultimately be the nominee, which could be interpreted as some pretty intense dissatisfaction. Usually when people think Candidate X is going to win they make themselves comfortable with the idea.
Who is most likely to win GOP nomination? Among GOP voters, 65% say Trump, 23% say Cruz, 5% say Kasich. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
Here’s something interesting…
In head to head presidential match-up results, Clinton trails Kasich by 9 points, ties with Cruz, and leads Trump by 10. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
Bernie Sanders beats Kasich by 2, Cruz by 13 and Trump by 19. We’ll let you chew on that a while.
Support by region: Cruz does best in Milwaukee media market. Trump is strongest in north and west parts of the state. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
Trump still strongest in north and west WI, but Cruz has made major in-roads, Franklin says. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
Among Republican voters, Trump supported by 35% without college degree, 21% with college degree. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
Among Republican voters, Cruz supported by 37% without college degree, 45% with college degree. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
"Sort of surprising" to see Cruz ahead of Trump among those without college degrees, Franklin says. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
Kasich supported by 20% without college degree, 23% with college degree. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016
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