In a terrifying bit of news, the Boston Herald reports that Scott Brown now has a 50-46 lead over Martha Coakley, bringing him very close to being the first Republican since 1972 to win election to the U.S. Senate from Massachusetts.
“It’s a Brown-out,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center, which conducted the poll. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”
Some of the telling numbers in the poll…
- The poll used a sample of 500 registered, likely voters – with a breakdown of 39 percent Democrats, 15 percent Republicans and 45 percent independents to try to match historical voter turnout.
- Brown beats Coakley 60-35 among independent voters.
- Brown has 91 percent of Republicans and 17 percent of Democrats. His 60-35 lead with independents mirrors the fact he has twice as much support from Democrats as Coakley has from Republicans.
- Coakley only beats Brown 50-45 among women.
- Brown’s favorable rating is 57 percent, as opposed to 19 percent unfavorables. Coakley’s numbers are 49-41.
It’s a special election, so voter turnout is key and Coakley can still beat Brown by cranking up the Boston vote machine. But Coakley’s terrible campaign doesn’t seem well poised to do so; she makes gaffe after gaffe, including <a href=taking a swipe at the rubes going to Fenway Park for outdoor hockey and suggesting that devout Catholics shouldn’t work in emergency rooms if they don’t want to perform abortions as medical professionals. She proves every time she gets a chance that she’s a terrible candidate, and there is word that the SEIU will be busing union members into Massachusetts on Election Day to bolster her sagging volunteer efforts.
And while Coakley has a major problem with her handling of the unjust imprisonment of Gerald Amirault, who was falsely accused and convicted of child molestation and yet Coakley fought his release as Massachusetts Attorney General, she also has a new prosecution problem with the disclosure of her conduct in the Keith Winfield case, in which Winfield was convicted of raping his 23-month old niece with a hot curling iron after Coakley first dragged her feet in charging him in the first place and didn’t even ask for bail as he was released on his own recognizance prior to trial.
Bill Clinton and Rudy Giuliani will be in Massachusetts today to help rally support for Coakley and Brown, respectively.