‘Twas the night before Election Day (in Louisiana)

Tomorrow is Election Day in Louisiana. On the ballot will be the party primaries for its Congressional races. All forms of early and absentee voting have concluded. We kept track of the early voting numbers (with special thanks to the Secretary of State’s office), and what we noticed so far was as follows:

(1) We expect that the Congressional primaries will be a low turnout affair, based on the early voting volume. Now that mail in ballots have been cast, 28203 early votes have been cast. We project that in the end, there will be an estimated 6-19% overall turnout. To put this figure in perspective, in the moderate turnout 2007 Governor’s primary, 139400 early voted. And in the high turnout 2008 Presidential race, 283500 early voted;

(2) While there are contested Democratic and Republican primaries statewide for the Senate and in four Congressional districts, Republican enthusiasm was higher than the Democrats/Independents (Independents can vote in Democratic primaries). In a state where Democrats and Independents outnumber registered Republicans 2.9 to 1, 3.35 Republicans showed up for every Democrat/Independent who did. Overall, 54% of the early vote was cast by Republicans, 42% by Democrats, and 4% by Independents. This level of GOP enthusiasm is unprecedented., although it is worth noting there was a “Democratic surge” from the mail in ballots: 60% of the mail ins were from Democrats, compared to 36% from Republicans. And 32% of the mail ins were from black voters.  Overall, in 42 parishes, more Republicans physically showed up, with especially strong Republican early voting turnout, percentage-wise, in Lafourche, St Martin, St Tammany, and Terrebonne;

Absentee vote by parish

 

(3) Curiously, a significant number (26%) of the early ballots cast were mail in ballots, while 74% early voted in person. For comparison’s sake, in 2007 and 2008, 95% voted in person and 5% mailed in their ballot;

(4) To put the Republican early voting enthusiasm (i.e., the 54-42% lead) in perspective, in the 2007 Governor’s race, Democrats led 52-36% in early voting, while in the 2008 Presidential race, Democrats led 58-29%;

(5) To what extent are Congressional primaries driving this turnout ? For the Democrats, not very much, while for the Republicans, it has helped quite a bit. While the Senate primaries are at the top of the ballot, there are also four contested House primaries. Democrats are holding Congressional primaries in the 2nd Congressional District (most of New Orleans and the Westbank) and 4th Congressional District (northwest Louisiana). Republican primaries are in the 3rd Congressional District (“Bayou country” between New Iberia and St Bernard Parish) and 5th Congressional District (northeast and central Louisiana). When we looked at the parishes where Democratic Congressional primaries are being held, we noticed that 0.6% of Democrats/Independents early voted, which equals the statewide average. If we look at the parishes where Republican Congressional primaries are being held, we find that 3.2% have early voted, compared to a statewide average of 2.0%. In other words, even with a hotly contested Democratic primary in New Orleans, Republicans are more enthusiastic about their House candidates where there are serously contested races, with the three way Republican primary in the 3rd district between Hunt Downwer, Kristian Magar, and Jeff Landry being the biggest attention getter – in fact, 3.6% of Republicans have already cast a ballot before polls have even opened. To put this number in perspective, we think that 13-20% of the GOP vote in that district has already been cast.

Finally, it’s worth repeating again that we are making somewhat of a big deal about the early vote volume, because when the Legislature essentially established “no fault” early voting several years ago, more and more people have chosen to early vote, so a constituency of 5-15% of the total vote is something a politician would be foolish to ignore – especially in a closely contested race. These early voting numbers are the ones that are typically reported on the TV screen several minutes after polls close at 8 PM. 

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

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