2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

In 41 states, absentee voting is underway, while in person voting is underway in 18 states (in person voting in Louisiana commences this Saturday). In other words, any campaign that isn’t in the midst of get out the (early) vote efforts isn’t a campaign that is well prepared. As we mentioned last week, we are now making calls on races based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 7 days. Our rankings are based on the following criteria:

(1) Safe Democratic (dark blue on the map)/Safe Republican (dark red on the map) – either a candidate leads by 10 or more points, or a candidate has over 50% in polls;

(2) Lean Democratic (light blue on the map)/Lean Republican (light red on the map) – a candidate leads by 3-9 points;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – a candidate leads by less than 3 points;

(4) No data available/primary has not been held (gray) – In the Hawaii Senate race, polling data has not been publicly released, so we have nothing to analyze there.

(5) No Senate/gubernatorial race in 2010 for this state (black)

2010 Election Predictions – Senate Races 

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John Couvillon is a political consultant. His company is JMC Enterprises of Louisiana, Inc. with expertise in the data analysis aspects of political campaigns, such as poll sample development/analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy, and demographic consulting. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.