Pollapalooza, Nov. 1 Edition: The Senate

There’s too much out there to craft a wordy narrative behind it. Suffice it to say this is going to be a butt-kicking of massive proportions. Alex Isenstadt at POLITICO has the skinny, pulled from a Democrat operative…

“Everybody that is tied will lose, and everyone that is ahead by a few points will lose because of the GOP wave,” said one party media consultant who is involved in a wide array of House races. “There are going to be some surprises.”
Now, on to the numbers.

In this update, the Senate. Here are the latest polls in the races which matter:

  • NEVADA: Fox News says Sharron Angle is ahead of Harry Reid 48-45, PPP says Angle is ahead 47-46.
  • WASHINGTON: Fox News says Patty Murray is ahead of Dino Rossi 49-47, but PPP says Rossi is ahead 50-48. PPP’s poll release has some really interesting details:

Every time PPP has polled the Washington Senate race this year it’s found the race to be within 2 or 3 points and our final poll there is no exception. But there is one twist- for the first time we find Dino Rossi leading Patty Murray, by a 50-48 margin.

Neither candidate has much in the way of support across party lines- Rossi’s winning 93% of Republicans and Murray’s winning 91% of Democrats. That means independents, as they are in so many races across the country, are making the difference for the GOP here. Rossi leads Murray with them by a 54-42 margin.

The most worrisome number for Murray within the poll, beyond her small overall disadvantage, is that among voters who say they’ve already returned their ballots Rossi’s advantage is wider at 52-47. Murray’s ability to keep the race close is predicated on the 24% of respondents who have not yet done so returning their ballots. That group supports her by a 51-45 margin.

  • CALIFORNIA: PPP says Barbara Boxer leads Carly Fiorina 50-46, while Rasmussen says Boxer is ahead 49-46. Fiorina will underpoll in this race; that you can bank on.
  • PENNSYLVANIA: Quinnipiac has Pat Toomey ahead of Joe Sestak 50-45. PPP says Toomey is ahead 51-46. Rasmussen says Toomey is up 50-46. Morning Call says it’s Toomey 48, Sestak 44. McClatchy/Marist has Toomey ahead 52-45.
  • WEST VIRGINIA: Rasmussen has Joe Manchin ahead of John Raese 50-46. PPP has Manchin ahead 51-46.
  • COLORADO: Ken Buck is 1 point up on Michael Bennett, 49-48, in PPP’s latest poll. Fox News has the lead at 4, 50-46. McClatchy/Marist has Buck ahead 49-45.
  • FLORIDA: Marco Rubio is blowing it out. Quinnipiac has him ahead with 45 percent, Charlie Crist with 31 and Kendrick Meek with 18. Sunshine State News has it 48-31-20. And PPP says it’s 47-30-21.
  • CONNECTICUT: Linda McMahon has now tightened her race against Dick Blumenthal. Rasmussen has Blumenthal ahead 53-46, while Quinnipiac has him ahead 53-44. Turnout could make this race even closer. She’s still a long shot, but she’s now close enough that a true GOP wave could carry her in.
  • ILLINOIS: Both Fox News and PPP have the same number – Mark Kirk at 46, Alexi Giannoulias 42.
  • OHIO: Rob Portman is crushing Lee Fisher 56-37, per Quinnipiac. Rasmussen has it 57-33. Fisher gave all his campaign money to the Ohio Democrat Party last week. It’s over.
  • ALASKA: PPP says Joe Miller is ahead with 37 percent, Lisa Murkowski has 30 and Scott McAdams 30. There’s another poll out which says Murkowski is at 37, Miller 27 and McAdams 23, but it’s by a group – Dittman Research – which is a Murkowski operator. That poll is a push-poll, from what we understand.
  • KENTUCKY: Rand Paul 55, Jack Conway 40, per PPP. Say goodnight, Jack.
  • NEW YORK: Two polls have Kristen Gillibrand ahead of Joe DioGuardia by 20. SuveyUSA says she’s up 56-36, while Siena has it 57-37.
  • WISCONSIN: McClatchy/Marist says Ron Johnson is ahead 52-45.
  • NEW HAMPSHIRE: Rasmussen says Kelly Ayotte is beating Paul Hodes 55-40.
  • DELAWARE: Monmouth had a poll on Friday which had Chris Coons ahead of Christine O’Donnell 51-41. But over the weekend O’Donnell announced she’s buying three 30-minute mega-ad spots – and a story hit last week that internal Democrat polls show the race in a dead heat. We’ll find out tomorrow.

Next: The House.

Also, make sure to check out our John Couvillion’s Election Night Guide here.



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