Yesterday, the Census released information detailing how the House of Representatives is to be apportioned between the states. To no one’s surprise, Louisiana is slated to lose one of its its seven House districts, due to lower than normal population growth since the 1980s.
The current conventional wisdom is that the continuing shift of population from the Northeast/Midwest to the South/West means that Democratic seats will be eliminated, while the newly added seats will be Republican, by virtue of the population shifts skewing towards generally “redder” states. Is this a valid assumption, though ? We will analyze this assumption by looking at the political situation in both the “losing” states and the “gaining” states.
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John Couvillon is a political consultant. His company is JMC Enterprises of Louisiana, Inc. with expertise in the data analysis aspects of political campaigns, such as poll sample development/analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy, and demographic consulting. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.