We all saw this coming, but it makes for interesting discussion nonetheless. A press release this morning…
Conservative businessman and Republican lawmaker Rep. Paul Hollis (R-104) announced today that he is endorsing Dr. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s United States Senate race.
“We can trust Dr. Bill Cassidy to represent our conservative Louisiana values in the United States Senate,” said Rep. Hollis. “During his time in Congress, Dr. Cassidy has worked tirelessly to reduce the size of the federal government, end reckless spending, and repeal job-killing taxes and big government mandates like Obamacare.
“Dr. Cassidy believes as I do that America’s greatness is a product of its people and not a gift from the federal government. He’s running for the U.S. Senate because he wants to return power and opportunity to the American people.
“I encourage my friends and neighbors throughout Louisiana to join me in backing Dr. Bill Cassidy for the U.S. Senate. Now is the time for Republicans to join forces and end Mary Landrieu’s liberal reign in Washington. Together, we can stop the Obama/Landrieu agenda and start rebuilding the American Dream for future generations.”
One can expect there to be pressure on Rob Maness to get out of the Senate race at this point.
That’s likely to be resisted, but Maness’ second-quarter disclosure wasn’t particularly encouraging.
What you have to understand about campaign mechanics is that the 2nd Quarter of the election year is your make-or-break fundraising period. Certainly for a statewide race like the U.S. Senate you’ll need to build a war chest of some size early in a campaign, but the second quarter is the period at which the race begins to develop some definition and the donor class begins to make major decisions about which candidates to back and with what amounts. Most campaign consultants will tell you that between April and June of an election year, you’ve got to bank enough money to run your campaign and pay for media the rest of the way to Election Day.
Maness raised $576,000 in the 2nd quarter, which isn’t a bad figure for a minor candidate. Except he spent $556,000. Netting $20,000 in the 2nd quarter means he has just over $300,000 in the bank, while Cassidy has $5.8 million and Landrieu has $6.2 million.
Numbers like that indicate Maness’ value in this campaign is only that of a spoiler. $300,000 can get him a few percent which could carry the race into December – without him in it.
At some point he’s going to need to evaluate what he’s accomplishing. His campaign isn’t gaining momentum in any measurable sense, and the money isn’t there to generate that momentum more than a year after he began running.