POLL: Vance McAllister Still Leads In LA-05, For Now

McAllister’s people can’t be too excited about the poll numbers, though they indicate that the anti-McAllister Republican voting base is going to need to galvanize around somebody else soon.

Because if the 47 percent of the anti-McAllister Republican vote continues to be split among four candidates, McAllister could well get the only runoff combination in which he can win; namely, a head-to-head with Monroe mayor Jamie Mayo, the Democrat in the race.

The poll was conducted by Darrell Glascock. Its results…

  1. McAllister, 27 percent;
  2. Mayo, 21 percent;
  3. Dr. Ralph Abraham, a Republican doctor from Mangham, 18 percent;
  4. Zach Dasher, a Republican businessman and the nephew of Phil Robertson of Duck Dynasty fame, 14 percent;
  5. Ed Tarpley, a Republican former district attorney in Grant Parish, 9 percent;
  6. Harris Brown, a Republican businessman from Monroe, 6 percent; and
  7. Clay Grant, a Libertarian from Boyce, 5 percent.

Why do we say Mayo is the only one of these people McAllister can beat?

This.

Although McAllister leads the poll, he trailed slightly in a scenario of a runoff with any of the other candidates.

When asked if McAllister was in a runoff against any of the other candidates, 35 percent of those responding said they would vote for the incumbent, 36 percent said they would vote for his opponent and 29 percent said they would want and see who he faced before deciding.

And this.

Respondents overwhelmingly said the most important thing a congressman can do for them is “being a leader in dismantling federal takeover of states’ rights and returning Christian values to Congress (67 percent).”

Twenty percent said their member’s priority should be “bringing federal funds home to his district,” while 13 percent said the top issue should be “taking the lead in immigration issues.”

Those results are interesting, in that they suggest Rodney Alexander might have trouble winning if this was still his seat. The race is going to whoever can show themselves as the most Christian conservative in the field. After his scandal, that isn’t McAllister unless he’s against Mayo – who won’t even try to say he’s conservative.



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