RASMUSSEN: Cassidy 50, Landrieu 46

This poll is better for Landrieu than the one Rasmussen dropped last week, by a small margin.

Last week, Rasmussen had it Landrieu 41, Cassidy 38 and Maness 14. In the head-to-head between Cassidy and Landrieu, Cassidy had a relatively massive 52-43 lead.

But this week, a bit of tightening.

The primary numbers:

Landrieu 43
Cassidy 36
Maness 13

It’s a two-point movement to Landrieu from a week ago, which may be significant of momentum for Landrieu or it might just be statistical noise. There are three percent supporting the minor candidates in the race and six percent undecided.

The sample was 988 Likely Voters, and the poll  was conducted on October 22-23.

What does this poll mean? Well, it still shows Landrieu struggling to get anywhere near 50 percent in the primary, and that means a runoff. And just like last week it shows Cassidy getting to 50 in a runoff, with him picking up just about everybody out of Maness’ camp from November to December.

But Landrieu getting to 46 in the head-to-head in this week’s poll after getting just 43 last week could be significant of her shoring up some support within her base or getting more of them to identify as likely voters. Not having access to the poll’s crosstabs or detailed sample data we can’t say whether it presents a different picture of some of the others which have her struggling to get above the low 40’s even in a runoff. Perhaps it’s using an election model closer to a presidential cycle; we don’t know.

The basic fundamentals of the race don’t seem to be changing, though. Landrieu’s ceiling still seems lower than 50 percent, both in November and in December.

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