USA Today Poll: Cassidy By Seven

This poll, done by Suffolk University for USA Today, the Lafayette Advertiser and WWL-TV (it’s of 500 likely voters polled last week) isn’t very different from many others we’ve seen where its toplines are concerned, but there is a lot of interesting information tucked into the crosstabs.

First, the two results we’d all like to know.

The primary:

Landrieu 36%
Cassidy 35%
Maness 11%
Other candidates 3%
Undecided 12%
Refused response 3%

And the head-to-head for the runoff:

Cassidy 48
Landrieu 41

Cassidy is getting virtually everybody in Maness’ camp at this point. The poll found that Landrieu’s unfavorables among Maness’ voters are 89 percent. Landrieu is also at 60 percent unfavorable among the undecideds, which means she’s cooked in a runoff – If Cassidy beats her basically 10-1 with Maness’ voters and 7-5 with the undecideds, plus 2-1 with the minor candidates, that’s 54 percent he gets in the runoff.

More interesting numbers…

  • The poll finds Barack Obama’s approval rating is at just 32 percent. His disapproval rate is 60, and 62 percent say he’s bad for Louisiana.
  • Right now Landrieu has a 75-8 advantage over Cassidy with black voters. She pulled 95 percent of the black vote in 2008, so that would indicate some erosion of black support.
  • Landrieu’s disapproval rating is 54 percent.
  • Landrieu leads Cassidy 42-27 among early voters, but that’s a small subset of the electorate.
  • Cassidy’s favorable-unfavorable number is 38-36, which isn’t great and it’s why he doesn’t have a major chance of putting the race away next week. But considering all the money that has been spent against him to date by the Democrats and the fact there’s another Republican who beats on him daily, his camp probably isn’t unhappy with that number.
  • In the runoff, it’s Landrieu who has the gender-gap problem. She’s only beating Cassidy 45-44 with women; he’s killing her 52-36 with men.
  • Cassidy is trashing Landrieu 49-30 with independents in the head-to-head.
  • The poll asked some issue-voter questions to gauge who’s winning on their messaging. And if you’ve noticed all the squabbling about immigration playing out on TV, here’s something interesting: among voters who think immigration is the most important issue in the campaign Cassidy wins by a 59-12 count. He’s thrashing her 73-15 among the folks who say the federal budget is the big issue, and 65-25 on the national security issue. Landrieu’s ads touting all her efforts on the military aren’t working, either; Cassidy is beating her 52-36 with military families.
  • One bright spot, amid a sea of negativity for Landrieu in the poll, is that Cassidy’s economic message (which, to be fair, he hasn’t emphasized) has fallen flat; among those who are primarily concerned about jobs she’s ahead 57-35.
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