Gravis Marketing is a Republican polling firm, so when it releases a poll with a big number in favor of Bill Cassidy over Mary Landrieu you can imagine Landrieu’s camp will discount that number.
Still, when it’s Cassidy 59, Landrieu 38 and three percent undecided by all appearances we’re looking at a blowout two weeks from Saturday.
The poll was of 643 likely voters from Wednesday to Friday of last week, and the sample looks relatively typical of most polling samples we’ve seen – if a little on the Cassidy-friendly side.
Respondents were asked with what party they identify, and 44 percent said Democrat and 36 percent Republican. That might be more of a Democrat party ID than some of the others we’ve seen, but the white-to-black ratio of the sample was 69-25; that’s a bit whiter electorate than we saw in the November primary. It’s not out of the question we could see the December electorate show a 25 percent black share, but that’s probably low.
Other interesting questions in the poll: Barack Obama’s approval rating is underwater at 33-61, which fits with other polling we’ve seen, and it looks like David Vitter is the 800-pound gorilla in Louisiana politics. Vitter bombs Mitch Landrieu 54-36 in a head-to-head in the 2015 governor’s race and beats Jay Dardenne handily, 43-29, in a Republican-vs-Republican head to head contest.
But the big number is that 21-point lead for Cassidy. Coming on last week’s Magellan poll showing a 16-point lead, it’s beginning to look like this race is all over but the shouting. Of course, we know there will be plenty of that.