I’m writing this as sort of a more localized version of this post of mine at RedState because it applies very well to Louisiana.
The Insider has relied on bad polling. The Insider has relied on conventional wisdom. The Insider has pontificated on political outcomes based solely on a utopic view of what Washington D.C. could be: A place for moderate to spend money on what they want to see done. There is no room for the conservative worldview there.
The Insider will continue to make predictions based on bad data and ill-will toward conservatives, and The Insider will continue to be wrong time and again. This year is the Year of the Insider. After all, they need something to make themselves feel better, don’t they?
Let’s take a look at Louisiana, because there has been a lot of Insider talk that didn’t really pan out. David Vitter was supposed to clean up the Republican side of the aisle and dominate the race. It didn’t materialize like they’d hope. He edged his way in, but there were casualties on the field.
The Insiders are now saying that the Jay Dardenne endorsement of David Vitter will kill the latter’s campaign. They rely on polling (which is using terrible samples and data, by the way) to say “Oh look! Edwards is up! He’s gonna win!” while at the same time saying a poll that McKay talked about yesterday isn’t worth the time of day. That in and of itself is much like the Trump campaign praising polls until they don’t show him on top anymore.
I’m on the record as saying this race will be about 52/48 in Vitter’s favor come election day. That’s working under the assumption that Dardenne’s endorsement is a net positive (contra the Triumph poll) but Edwards’ negatives continue to rise. Things are, of course, capable of changing. Right now, I’d want to see Vitter re-connecting with Republican voters after that primary while his SuperPAC hits Edwards on the 5500 convicts and his total absence of real social or fiscal conservatism.
The Insiders do not like that analysis of course. The Good Ol’ Republicans in this state don’t want to see Vitter in charge. Partly because of his past, and they want to make Louisiana look like it’s politically cleaner (even though we all know it isn’t) and partly because they know they can’t control Vitter. Vitter will control them or kick them out.