On Friday, Scott compared Scott Angelle to Neil Riser. The Trafalgar Group, who had among the most accurate polling of the presidential race, polled the U.S. House 3rd District race and found Clay Higgins with with a 50% to 42% lead over Angelle.
Here’s how Scott described the race:
But Scott Angelle is in some trouble. That’s pretty clear. He’s almost eight points down and his opponent is just shy of 50 percent. That’s going to be hard to make up in three weeks.
Angelle’s race is looking more and more like the one state Sen. Neil Riser found himself in for the 5th District open seat in the 2013 special election after Rodney Alexander decided to retire. Riser was the no-brainer candidate for the special election, so much so that there was a strong sentiment the seat had come open specifically to “put the fix in” for him. Riser was considered to be Bobby Jindal’s hand-picked candidate in the race, and Riser’s campaign team was made up of a lot of Jindal’s political people.
Fast forward to today. The Angelle campaign is touting a new poll from their pollster OnMessage Inc. that has Angelle on top 46-42%. Angelle leads Higgins 46-41% among all voters older than 55. The poll also has Angelle on top 48% to 40% among voters over 66 and a significant gender gap opening up. Angelle leads 10% among women while Higgins leads by only 3% among men. Runoff electorates tend to be older and more female than the primary.
Angelle campaign manager Ryan Cross also took issue with The Trafalgar Group’s poll, noting it was commissioned by the Higgins campaign. “The Trafalgar poll was an IVR poll whereas this poll was a live interview poll. The poll’s demographic sample was also in line with historical voting patterns, whereas Trafalgar’s was not,” said Cross.
Cross feels good about his candidate’s chances. He points out that Angelle has a significant cash on hand advantage over Higgins. Plus he believes that recent allegations against Higgins over back child support and domestic abuse allegations are taking their toll.
On the other hand, Higgins has struck the right message of this election and done better than expected. But can he sustain it in a different runoff electorate?