Louisiana finally has a chance to get it right with school vouchers, while research shows opponents to the idea keep getting it wrong.

Currently, HB 745 by Republican State Rep. Julie Emerson and SB 313 by GOP State Sen. Rick Edmonds have started advancing through the Legislature. Each would provide for education savings accounts (ESAs) for families to choose to spend on nonpublic elementary and secondary education rather than enroll their children into public schools. It would start by offering transition of students in one of the existing three voucher programs based upon quality of last public school or attended or assigned, family income, and exceptionalities, followed a year later by expanding to all middle-lower income and below households, and then a year later inviting all families. It would not reimburse families for home schooling.

While the House bill heads to the floor, the Senate bill will take a detour to review finances. That is of some concern, as wildly varying estimates have come forth for new added expenses, mainly in fiscal 2028-29 and beyond. The difficulty in coming up with a reasonably accurate estimate lies in so many indeterminacies.

For example, as the bill would pay out to upper-middle-class and above families (defined as 250 percent of the federal poverty line or higher), only 55 percent of the money it sends per student without exceptionalities to public schools, 80 percent to others below that, and 160 percent for students with exceptionalities, private schools would have to make a judgment call on tuition. Taking into account demand and supply curves and incremental costs, with this potential new revenue available they want to set a price point to maximize profit, which could mean lowering their tuition to grab a lot more students, or even raising it that may attract fewer but as the ESA amount would buttress family finances this may retain most.

One back-of-the-envelope estimate alleges in a few years the annual cost will reach $520 million a year, but that doesn’t include more sophisticated cost-benefit analysis and instead figures on a headlong rush of families with students already in private schools engaging with ESAs. A comparison with Wisconsin, which has roughly the same proportion of students per capita in private schools (about two and a quarter percent), indicates that higher estimate is overwrought.

Wisconsin, which jockeys with Louisiana and Hawai’i for the highest proportion, has a rich voucher policy history that has spurred use of nonpublic schools. It has four separate programs, one smaller one like Louisiana’s that cater to students with disabilities but the other three open to any family below a certain income at 200 percent the federal poverty line, but pays for everything that generally ranges from $8,000-9,000 per student without exceptionalities. Louisiana’s will be far below that, with the initial award estimated from $5,000-7,500.

Importantly, a review of Wisconsin data can reveal what participation numbers to expect going forward. These can show how many schools/students opt out entirely – which likely will be higher in Louisiana since schools won’t be able to expect full reimbursement – and the proportion of students at schools who will use the program at the lower rate, which also will diminish those at higher income levels who use the program because some, frankly, will avoid schools that participate because they bring in students they consider to be, to be blunt, the hoi polloi.

In Wisconsin for the same fiscal year as the latest enrollment figures (academic year 2022), the state spent $413 million on 48,894 students, which represented 57.8 percent of the enrollment at participating schools. However, that total head count of 84,450 was just 62.8 percent of all 134,527 nonpublic students, meaning about 58 percent of students attending a nonpublic school went to one not participating in the program.

Keeping in mind Louisiana won’t pay full freight for many schools that will discourage some family participation in concert with schools not participating, perhaps only half of current Louisiana private school students will have families take advantage of ESAs rather than all, instead of the 80 percent guesstimate in the overwrought estimate. That estimate also forecasts that four percent of public students will bail into a private school, while the fiscal note, which predicts a cost approaching $300 million annually by the third year of full opt-in, forecasts just above one percent.

Regardless, the state will incur extra costs, but the data from elsewhere suggest it will be money well spent. Indeed, it will correct (and dwarf) flaws currently existing in the state’s low-income voucher program, which due to its overregulation that discourages better nonpublic schools from participating and handcuffs those that do from innovative teaching and content choices, along with the fact that they have to take the worst educated students among those not starting schooling, it essentially produces no better results over time, than do public schools. This improved outlook is as nonpublic participating schools won’t have to follow state guidelines in evaluation, although they must use a recognized testing instrument to provide performance information – which is appropriate, because families will vote with their ESAs to penalize lower-performing schools and reward others at the opposite end (and those schools would keep their admission standards).

Better, while voucher students, typically lower income, have shown mixed results in learning improvement, results have been much more positive on metrics such as graduation, attending college, and obtaining a college degree. The subgroup showing the strongest positive effects has been black students.

Best of all, data show the rising tide promoted by school choice lifts all boats, or at the very least doesn’t cause foundering of public schools. Again, using Wisconsin numbers, public school students don’t do any worse with choice schools around, and apparently improve in performance at least in English and language arts. A study specifically of Louisiana’s lower-income voucher program also found positive effects. Nationally, ESA programs haven’t harmed the finances of public schools, and the two bills for Louisiana wouldn’t either as they would transfer out only state dollars received while the local education agency involved keeps the per student amount in local revenues raised to spread around fewer students.

These more positive outcomes make the additional cost well worth it for the ESA bills. Plus, evidence is that over the long term higher costs will come down as nonpublic schools attract more public school students and public schools become more efficient in reaction. Despite the wailings of naysayers and special interests, evidence shows there’s little to lose and much to gain with enacting into law either of the two ESA bills.