Here are some thoughts about how I see things playing out today and why.

Will the GOP Win the US Senate? VERY LIKELY

The Democrats are defending some tough turf this time around with the two most likely seats to flip from one party to the other being held by Democrats in West Virginia and Montana.

However, two Republican incumbents are in very close races in Texas (Ted Cruz) and Nebraska (Deb Fischer). The GOP US Senators should hold on but the possibility of either or both losing cannot be discounted.

But Democrats are having to fend off strong Republican challenges in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Nevada. Though a long shot now thrice nominated GOP statewide candidate Kari Lake has inched closer to her Democratic opponent in Arizona in the polls where the issue of illegal immigration will probably move the state to Trump’s column regardless of the US Senate results.

Will Republicans Keep the House? TOSS UP

Republicans will go into Election Day down a seat with the creation of a second minority majority Democratic-leaning district in Louisiana. The big question is whether Republican voters in large blue states turn out not so much for the top of the ticket but the bottom of it, or will they stay at home as they believe casting a ballot in California is pointless in the grand scheme of things.

Kudos to Trump for holding campaign events in states that have been conceded to the other party for the past two decades, if not for his sake but for the benefit of Republicans running in competitive congressional districts.

With the margin of control so narrow, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hakeem Jeffries is holding the gavel next year even if Trump moves back to the White House.

The outcome of the House might drag beyond even that of the presidency if there are numerous districts with tiny margins between the contenders.

Will We Know Who Won on Tuesday? POSSIBLY

The 2020 presidential election was like a World Cup Soccer match…there was still deal of play after the end of regulation.

Regardless of party those who do not have direct skin in the game (lobbyists, government jobseekers, contractors, consultants, and hyper partisans) would like to go to bed knowing who won the White House.

And the truth is there’s no reason for that not to happen with modern communications and technology. Alas as we have seen in 2000, 2004, and 2020 that’s not a certainty because of the even and seething partisan split of the country.

And I should add long before The Donald refused to accept the results of 2020, Al Gore and John Kerry didn’t concede their respective races on election night.

Short of a decisive win by either candidate a Lloyd Christmas modicum of chance will be feverishly grasped by either side because of the pointed rhetoric of both candidates.

They’ve vilified each other so much that a concession in the minds of the impressionable is tantamount to a surrendering of the country to a tyrant.

Expect much post-election legal maneuvering with a chance of screaming at the sky.

Will Trump Win? PROBABLY.

I feel more confident about Trump winning than I do about the Republicans retaining control of the House.

The Democrats have been signaling panic over the past few weeks as Kamala Harris is running not as an effective vice-president or a qualified leader but as either Abortion Harris or Not Trump Harris.

If Trump were the incumbent this move wouldn’t be so unusual but she’s the anointed successor of an administration of the Big Guy who is underwater in approval polls and on the deep side of the National Right Direction polls.

As much as Harris attempts to separate herself from Biden, as John McCain desperately tried to do with George W. Bush in 2008, the connection is apparent no matter what slogans are waved around at her rallies.

Harris’ plea to turn the page on a book that she is a co-author isn’t fooling objective voters.

At this time four years ago surveys showed Trump trailing Biden however in those same battleground states in 2024 Trump has either tied Harris or enjoys an incrementally shifting lead.

That both Minnesota (!) and New Hampshire have become competitive is noteworthy and perhaps so much so that the Democratic-aligned mainstream media has breathlessly pushed a Des Moines Register poll story showing Harris with a slight lead while conveniently ignoring others where Trump comfortably leads the vice-president.

All eyes are on Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina.

Georgia is under new and better Republican management and Arizona and Nevada are hotspots for the immigration issue though Nevada’s system of conducting elections plays to the Democrats’ advantage. The Republican candidate for governor in Nevada in 2022 enjoyed a large lead in polls yet when the ballots were counted he won by only 1.5%.

North Carolina is a bit trickier due to the gubernatorial election where the Republican candidate has imploded, though dissatisfaction with the Democrats’ hurricane response might more than balance things out in Trump’s favor.

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are the true battlegrounds as all three have extremely tight US Senate races along with presidential ballots within the margin of error. The three states have a combined 44 electoral votes and went to Biden by a sum of 267,029 in 2020.

Had Trump convinced a mere 133,515 voters distributed amongst the margins of each state to back him instead of Biden the president would’ve been re-elected.

Finally one piece of advice: VOTE DONT GROUSE OR READ FAKE NEWS, especially Drudge.

The media wants Harris to win and are using their influence to highlight stories that motivate Democratic turnout or depress Republican participation. They’re in the advocacy, not news-reporting, business.

And the most sensationalist this year has been Matt Drudge whose website has fueled hysteria about Trump and as of yesterday posted an absurd poll from New Hampshire as a headline claiming Harris was leading Trump there by 28 points.

For perspective, Trump didn’t lose New Jersey anywhere close to that margin in 2020 and to further undermine the credibility of that poll it showed Republican Kelly Ayotte down 18 points for governor. Ayotte has led in every poll prior to this one.

Seriously, just skip the news today until balloting is done in your state; it’ll just give you unneeded agita.