There is a new poll out which gives – maybe – a window into what things look like in the 5th District congressional race, and we thought we’d pass it along with the usual caveats.

Our readers know that the 5th District is the one Julia Letlow represents now, and she’s leaving the seat to run for Bill Cassidy’s increasingly-open Senate seat. It’s traditionally the congressional district covering northeast Louisiana, but it’s actually a lot more of a Baton Rouge district the way it was drawn in the 2022 congressional map that gave Cleo Fields a ready-made majority black district in what had been Garrett Graves’ old 6th District.

It’s probably better that neither your author nor you the reader get started on that.

This race is, perhaps appropriately, weird – in that nobody really seems to know what’s in the 5th District and what isn’t, though everybody seems to agree that Blake Miguez’ state senate district is definitely not in the 5th District.

Miguez has lots of ties to Baton Rouge, of course, and his company has a facility here. Miguez was actually Mike Johnson’s roommate when both were in school in Baton Rouge, so it’s not like he doesn’t belong. But when you hear people talk about the race that’s still the major objection Miguez gets.

What we expected, and we think we’ll be right about this, is that by the time the voting starts nobody will really care all that much about Miguez’ residency. He’s going to live in the district if he gets elected, and it isn’t like he needs Google Maps to get around Baton Rouge or Livingston Parish.

And Miguez is the frontrunner in the race. Which was always going to be the case.

Now, to the poll, from an organization we hadn’t heard of until we saw the press release on it…

The Rainey Center Freedom Project surveyed 889 likely voters in Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District via text message from April 4–7, 2026. Results were weighted by gender, age, race, education, and geography. The margin of error is ±3.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Data Centers, Energy, and AI: Voter Attitudes

As part of the Rainey Center Freedom Project polling on data centers, we conducted a survey on data center development, energy infrastructure, and AI-related security concerns. Louisiana’s 5th District voters are highly engaged on these issues and hold strong views including support for President Trump’s ratepayer protection pledge and support for nuclear development. We included a short horserace segment giving on the ongoing primary.

The Horse Race: A Two-Man Contest

This race is a two-man contest between Blake Miguez and Michael Echols. No other candidate has the combination of name recognition, voter support, and positioning needed to be competitive on May 16.

Candidate Ballot

• Blake Miguez 23%
• Michael Echols 20%
• Rick Edmonds 10%
• Misti Cordell 3%
• Not Sure 42%

Key Takeaways:

• Miguez is underperforming given his advantages. Despite a Trump endorsement, a Club for Growth endorsement, and a significant television buy, Miguez leads the initial ballot at just 23%, only 3 points ahead of Echols at 20%. A candidate with those resources should be consolidating support far more effectively. The reason is straightforward: voters in the district already know Michael Echols is a solid conservative, and many are making their own judgment rather than deferring to an endorsement.

• 45% of voters say Trump’s endorsement is not important to their vote. Only 18% say they will vote for whomever Trump endorses. Another 37% call it a factor but not the only one. A combined 45% say Trump’s endorsement is “not very important” or “not at all important.” This large bloc of independently minded voters is the terrain on which Echols can compete and win.

• Rick Edmonds is a regional candidate without a path. Edmonds draws 10% overall, but without the financial resources for a television campaign, Edmonds cannot expand his support beyond his geographic base.

• The undecided pool is enormous. 42% of voters remain undecided on the initial ballot. Even after allocating leaners, roughly a third of the electorate remains uncommitted. This is a race that will be decided in the final weeks, and these voters are available to a candidate who can make a strong case on his own merits.

• Given the undecided pool, favorability may offer insights. Echols, with 36% favorable, 10% unfavorable (+26) has the highest net favorability rating, followed by Edmonds (28% favorable to 10% unfavorable, +18) and Miguez (36% favorable, 22% unfavorable, +17). Echols has more room to grow, while Miguez’s higher unfavourability may create a ceiling.

Methodology: 889 likely voters surveyed via text message, April 4–7, 2026. Weighted by gender, age, race, education, and geography. MOE ±3.6 points at 95% confidence.

This outfit seems to be something of a bipartisan/nonpartisan thing. We can’t say it’s tied to anybody, other than the press release definitely seems to be coming out of Michael Echols’ camp.

The poll seems like it’s Echols-friendly.

Is this an accurate read on the race? We’ve heard there are polls – though we haven’t seen any and can’t verify this – which have Miguez as high as 40 percent. Greg Rigamer, the New Orleans pollster and demographer, did something on the race back in February which had 75 percent of the vote undecided and none of the candidates even in double figures. That’s hardly even a poll.

The only comment we’d make on this is it’s not unreasonable to expect that Echols and Miguez would be in the runoff. That’s been our expectation. And based on the geography of the district as drawn, you would very much expect the South Louisiana candidate to beat the North Louisiana candidate in a head-to-head matchup, even if the South Louisiana guy is seen as something of a carpetbagger.

But that’s solely based on geography. The race has really only barely begun, and the most important element of a political race remains candidate performance. So we’ll see.