Polling by Democrat Senate candidate Jamie Davis released to the public denotes more of an effort to chip away at a national Republican fundraising advantage and bolster the state’s depleted Democrat bench than an assessment of whether Davis can win.

Twice now, the campaign has released polling data that purport to show Davis trailing GOP Rep. Julia Letlow by only four points, which would be a remarkable showing for a Democrat in a statewide election. The firm doing it, Hart Research, is a venerable firm that deals almost exclusively with Democrats but ranks among the top quarter or so of firms in one study of quality in 2024 (although its record was based on only three presidential polls, none for a Senate contest).

This particular poll does have some problems. The sample size was a bit low (500), which accentuated the fact that it didn’t apportion by geography and likely oversampled Democrats, assuming an enthusiasm gap that might exist in more competitive states but likely does not in the Bayou State. It also had two push questions in Davis’ favor that, after being presented, actually showed him with 53 percent, an additional nine percentage points.

He won’t win, nor will it be as close as the unbiased vote intention numbers would indicate. Recognize that the 44 percent Davis rang up represents a ceiling, given the small proportion of undecided voters typical of a month or so prior to an election. At this point, undecided voters mostly roll off or hold their noses and vote for the majority party’s candidate, that being in Louisiana the Republican. After a bruising primary with plenty of vetting – as noted by her high name recognition, whereas his is much lower, and with any publicity about his far-left issue preferences likely to lose him votes – if somebody hasn’t found a reason not to vote for Letlow by now, they won’t ever.

Perhaps as a result of that divisive primary, however, some disgruntled Republicans may stay home, which gives Davis a chance to do better than recent Democrats. None have gotten within single digits of a Republican (including blanket primaries aggregating multiple Democrats against an outright GOP winner) since Democrat former Gov. John Bel Edwards barely squeaked by into reelection in 2019. Davis could tickle that single-digit deficit territory. (For their part, prediction markets, which tend to overestimate poll frontrunners’ performances, have over 90 percent of their bets down on Letlow.)

Of course, anything could happen and Democrats want to position themselves to take advantage of that, but the real purpose of these polling releases is to try to divert Republican donations from other more competitive Senate contests. As Republicans hold a tremendous monetary lead, anything that can chip into that advantage by creating the perception of a truly competitive race, as well as perhaps firing up a little more fundraising enthusiasm on their own side, is welcome to them.

Also, down-ballot races that do have competitive Democrats could use some help. With new congressional districts leading to uncompetitive partisan contests and a spirited Shreveport mayoral contest being the only big competitive municipal race out there, Democrats need some enthusiasm to aid councilor/alderman, marshal, and school board candidates across the state.

That’s why you commission and release these polls that will overstate support for Davis compared to the actual voting, then hype them. They don’t have value other than that.