First, I want you, good reader, to know that I’m talking to myself more than anyone in this piece. I have been an absolute moron when it comes to expectations and outcomes regarding LSU football games.

I’m mostly healed of that unfortunate trait of fandom, but I know it’s still lurking in there. It’s stupid, and I wasn’t created to be stupid. Read everything today with that as the context.

I believe, on paper, LSU is the better football team heading into Saturday’s showdown at Ole Miss.

They have the better coach, just as they did last year.

Unfortunately, though, as the old cliché reminds us, they don’t play these games on paper, which sports fans should understand perfectly well, until their own team becomes the subject of the excitement and makes them forget the need for such obvious restraint.

How many times have we spent the week hyping ourselves into a mental frenzy, imagining how satisfying it will feel once the final horn sounds, while barely considering all the things that must happen on the field for that feeling to actually come to pass? By kickoff, we’ve relished the result of the game that hasn’t happened yet so thoroughly in our heads that if four quarters later we do lose, the cognitive dissonance makes us crazy.

Oxford and that Ole Miss team will be considerably more formidable than whatever we’ve created in our heads this week. Throw the stats out the window.

Between Lane Kiffin’s return and a hostile SEC crowd that hardly needed additional motivation, a powerful LSU football team will face circumstances no roster comparison can adequately measure. Oxford is even increasing security for the occasion. Those who watched last year’s game should remember how uncomfortable that environment can become, especially when the home team gives its fans reasons to keep believing.

2003 comes to mind as well.

While too many Tiger fans are thinking 2011 right now.

If it is, fine. I will celebrate. But personally, I’m going to let something like that happen of its own accord while I prepare my sanity accordingly.

A simple blown coverage, an early turnover (see Clemson game), or any early indication that the officials are going to officiate as we’ve all come to understand they will in the SEC, and suddenly rosters and pay-to-play money don’t matter.

Psychology will be very important on Saturday, much more than paper. LSU players want to silence the noise. Ole Miss players want to stick it to their former coach. Both teams will have to execute while resisting those impulses, which is considerably harder than talking about it during game week.

That takes us back to Monday’s MIKE CHECK and the distinction between preparing to win a football game and getting worked up for a street fight. Whatever satisfaction comes from responding to some trash talk or all the internet noise these past ten months, it instantly becomes considerably less satisfying when that yellow flag hits the grass and officials march off another 15 yards.

LSU’s Princewill Umanmielen was served court papers in the parking lot outside LSU’s football facility Tuesday, adding another personal element to a game already overflowing with them. It would be understandable if Prince wanted to send his former team a message, but knowing the spotlight is on him for that very reason, it may be a teammate that “has his back.” Again, to the tune of 15 yards. Prince and his teammates need to deliver any such message through disciplined execution and domination of the man in front of them, keeping their fists and late hits out of sight and out of mind.

This is what Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss had to say:

Speaking to reporters via The Rebel Walk, Chambliss urged the fanbase to turn the stadium into a wall of noise: “Bring it. You know, make it as loud as you can. Put as much pressure as you can on that offense. And yeah, I know that the fans are going to bring it and just be super bought into the game, and yeah, I’m excited for it.” With fans tailgating early and a stadium-wide Stripe Out planned, his call to action added fuel to an already volatile environment.

By calling on fans to create relentless noise, Chambliss is aiming to let the crowd mentally bully the visiting Tigers and force pre-snap mistakes. When reporters cornered Kiffin at his press conference and asked how his squad would handle the deafening noise and intense communication breakdowns, he dropped a quote that turned heads.

Let Ole Miss talk if they want to. I never understood why players don’t understand how much more powerful they look when they just toss the ball back to the referee or head back to the line of scrimmage for the next play.

Act like you expect to be there, in that very moment, whatever moment that is on any given play.

If Kiffin and the staff have drilled that into the players this week, and these young men enticed by those very same moments can stay the course when Oxford begins testing their patience, LSU can win, yes, and they can win comfortably.

But on second thought, there is also that pesky little question Blake Baker’s defense still has to answer: Can it contain a mobile quarterback like Chambliss? Chambliss presents a threat both through the air and outside the pocket, where a sure sack can suddenly become a 30-yard gain. Baker has yet to give any of us enough confidence to assume that problem is solved now just because the greatest offensive mind in the sport is likely teaching him tips on how to handle it. Assuming Saturday will give us the answer we want, simply because we want it, would be foolhardy.

And that foolhardiness doesn’t change one bit even if the Tiger defense does solve Chambliss on Saturday. It would be a lucky guess, and nothing more, a lucky guess that will eventually turn against us the next time we assume something beyond the standard. Whether Baker contains Chambliss or LSU wins comfortably, the eventual outcome cannot retroactively supply evidence we didn’t have when forming our expectations.

Tiger fans should be happy if their team escapes with a close victory. There would be nothing disappointing about winning this particular game by a field goal or even an extra point, regardless of what even the most diehard among us has been fantasizing about beforehand.

Personally, I would be surprised if LSU won big. Should the Tigers do so, however, we might indeed be watching one of those special squads that emerge every so often in Baton Rouge. Handling this atmosphere convincingly would give us considerably more reason for excitement than the Clemson and Louisiana Tech games provided.

And certainly more than we can randomly drum up in our heads over beer.

For now, I’m picking Ole Miss, 24–19, if for nothing else than my own peace of mind. Given what I confessed in the opening, it’s the right lane for me.

24-19 should also remind us about what happened in Oxford last year after Tigerland was making predictions based on that “no-name” transfer from Ferris State that Ole Miss would be starting at quarterback.

Yes, that guy.

You play the game between the lines—and also, between the ears.

While I’m not wrong in “knowing thyself,” I do hope I’m wrong on the score. Predictions are glorified random guesses anyway, and I’ll gladly trade being correct for an LSU victory.

I would also suggest watching the game on mute. There will be enough happening on the field without somebody spending three hours telling us what every camera shot of Lane Kiffin supposedly means.

Thank you for reading The Hayride!