We are three days removed from the 2026 Midterm elections, and the dust has finally settled for most elections both in Louisiana and across the country. After two years of broken promised by the national Republican leadership in Washington DC, voters in Louisiana shifted dramatically to the once-languishing Democratic party in Louisiana.

The warning signs were already there in the days heading into the Election Day that Louisiana voters were not satisfied with the Republican Party and the Trump administration. Multiple polls in 2026 (e.g. The Pelican Institute and World Population Review) showed Trump’s approval rating below 50% in Louisiana after he won the state by 20%+ in the 2024 presidential election. Additionally, early voting for Louisiana’s 2026 Midterm election was leaning toward the Democratic after multiple federal election cycles with weaker Democratic early vote turnout.

In an article last week, I tried to sound the alarm bells that the early vote totals foreshadowing a lack of voter enthusiasm among Republican and conservative voters in Louisiana:

“For reference, Louisiana Republicans actually outnumbered Democratic voters in the early voting period for both the 2022 midterms elections and the 2024 presidential elections. In fact, Republicans outnumbered Democratic voters during early voting in the 2022 midterms by ~2k and ~83k in the 2024 presidential election.

So based on the early voting data, there is some some of negative shift toward voting Republican in the 2026 midterm election cycle in Louisiana.

Now, this trend is not to say that Democratic candidate Jamie Davis will pull off a massive upset against GOP Congresswoman Julia Letlow in the US Senate general election or that we’ll Mike Johnson and or Steve Scalise losing their reelection campaigns to Congress. Historically, Republican voters in Louisiana typically tend to have stronger turnout on election day when compared to early voters. Therefore, the current odds are are slim-to-none for Louisiana’s open US Senate seat to revert back to the Democratic control.

However, there is clearly an enthusiasm gap that is starting to show up in Louisiana. Republicans and no-party conservative voters in Louisiana showed up in droves for the 2024 presidential election and even the 2022 midterm elections. However, a significant portion of these voters are not showing up to the polls during the early voting period.”

Additionally, I pointed that Louisiana’s US Senate race between Julia Letlow and Jamie Davis was looking to be closer-than expected:

Talk show host John Cunningham published a substack article yesterday with his take on Louisiana’s early voting statistics and his conclusion that Louisiana’s US Senate race may be closer than many expect it to be. I tend to agree with his conclusion based on the early voting data in Louisiana and the contentious Republican primary earlier this year.

I shared my previous article mainly just to show that the warning signs were all there. However, even I was shocked with just how much Louisiana swung to the Democratic party and away from the Republican party in Tuesday’s election.

According to Decision Desk, Julia Letlow only eeked out a narrow victory of 25k votes (less than 2%) against her Democratic opponent Jamie Davis.

Going into election day, Julia Letlow appeared to have several advantages over Jamie Davis—including higher name ID, high-profile endorsements from both Governor Landry & the President Trump, and a significant fundraising advantage.

This extremely close US Senate race points to an even more shocking result. According NBC, Louisiana voters moved 20% toward the Democratic party in 2026 when compared to the 2024 presidential election.

What’s more, Louisiana voters have heavily supported Republican candidates in the past three federal election cycles. Republican presidential and US Senate candidates have won their respective races by 18% or more in 2020, 2022, and 2024. Consequently, Tuesday’s vote is a staggering reversal of the past several election cycles in Louisiana.

 

 

Nathan Koenig is a frequent contributor to RVIVR.com, a national conservative political site affiliated with The Hayride. Follow his writing on the Louisiana First Standard Substack, on Twitter (X) @LAFirstStandard, on Tik Tok @la.first.standard & on Instagram @lafirststandard. Email him here: louisianafirststandard@proton.me