Bart Stupak is quoted in National Review as saying he will vote no if he is presented with the Senate bill. He also says that he has talked with many others in the House who are completely opposed to all the bribery deals done in the Senate. With public opinion swinging harder and harder against the bill, Congressman Griffith switching to the GOP, and President Obama’s poll numbers sinking like the Titanic, all the momentum is on our side. I think we have at least a one in three chance of defeating the bill. Whatever emerges from the conference committee is likely to provide some nervous Democrats with the justification for deciding to vote no.
UPDATE: We may have won a partial victory for now. This is huge. President Obama wanted to brag about the bill’s passage by the State of the Union, which is why Harry Reid kept the Senate in session through Christmas Eve. A delay gives us even more time to convince nervous Democrats that we mean business. The closer this vote gets to November 2, the more votes we’ll get. I would say that this makes it an almost even money proposition.
UPDATE: Ramesh Ponnuru agrees with me over at National Review.