2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

This is the last weekly pre-election analysis we are doing. Election Day edges ever closer, and the 5PM (Central time) Tuesday night poll closings in Indiana and Kentucky will provide early hints as to how the night will proceed. Our calls on Senate/Governor’s races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 7 days and are based on the following criteria:

(1) Safe Democratic (dark blue on the map)/Safe Republican (dark red on the map) – either a candidate leads by 10 or more points, or a candidate has over 50% in polls;

(2) Lean Democratic (light blue on the map)/Lean Republican (light red on the map) – a candidate leads by 3-9 points;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – a candidate leads by less than 3 points;

(4) No Senate/gubernatorial race in 2010 for this state (black)

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John Couvillon is a political consultant. His company is JMC Enterprises of Louisiana, Inc. with expertise in the data analysis aspects of political campaigns, such as poll sample development/analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy, and demographic consulting. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.