Democrats Lose Hispanic Vote

Now, we know about the failed stimulus and the unpopularity of Obamacare.  But what else have the Democrats done to shoot themselves in the foot come November?

A recent Gallup poll shows a surprisingly significant drop in the propensity for Hispanics to vote according to their traditional partisan allegiance.  Now, what might be the cause for a major part of the Democrat constituency dropping off the liberal bandwagon?

A Washington Times article explains the drop off effectively.  But it’s easy to understand if you look at it rationally so check out the chart below:  Here’s the link in case you can’t read it

Its important to note the shift in the level of Hispanic support over time and the point in which the drop in support began.  Note that in April the discrepancy between the percentage of Hispanics likely to vote Democrat and those likely to vote Republican dipped for the first time below 33 ten points to 23.  Now, what happened in the month of April to constitute this plunge?

Specifically, ratification of Arizona Senate Bill 1070.  But more to the point, the action that precipitated this drop was not the signing of the bill, but the method in which the left-wing activists waged war upon the bill’s supporters.  Democrats found it necessary to lump the entire population of Hispanics under one ethnic group, illegal Mexican immigrants.  And, as the Washington Times puts it:

 The Left is arguing that those of Dominican descent can’t possibly be thinking any differently about immigration than Mexicans who cross the border illegally.  How could a Puerto Rican think any differently about immigration than an illegal immigrant from El Salvador, the Left would theorize. Liberals might as well just say Hispanics all look alike and speak the same language, so they all share the same concerns.”

It might be puzzling to understand the return to high levels of Democrat support subsequent to the liberal smear campaign against the legislation.  But this is a historically common phenomenon in explained by political scientists.  Empirical research shows that in the absences of a campaign season, individuals (not only Hispanics) tend to gravitate toward their typical demographic voting propensities.  This research can explain the jump back to regular levels of support in June and July.

Then August hits.  The campaign season reminds the individuals (in this case Hispanics) of their alienation by the Democratic Party, precipitating a steady decline in support that we see today, down 19 points from traditional levels of support.  If political theory holds true, that trend will continue up until election day.

If only people would just forget, right Democrats?  Sorry, Americans live in reality, but you can go back to hallucinating about the effectiveness of your policy…we won’t miss you.



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