The race for the GOP nomination is clearly down between two people, Jeb Bush and the anti-Jeb Bush. In the new Quinnipiac University the two clear front-runners are former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and the anti-Jeb Bush, in this case, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Here’s the poll:
Now, it’s clear that Scott Walker has gained momentum and the editor of this site is a huge fan of his. But, I’m not entirely convinced this is because people like Scott Walker or that he’s just the new flavor of the month. Here’s a look at some of his numbers, notice the large number of people who don’t know anything about him:
Right now this is not a bad position for Scott Walker to be in and he has plenty of room for growth. However, right now much of his strength comes from the fact that he’s simply not Jeb Bush. One warning though, if you’re one of those people that believes the Republican Party needs to bring in new voters, Scott Walker may not be your guy based on how poorly he does among young voters.
Now on to another Tier 1 candidate, Rand Paul. Paul didn’t do so hot in this poll finishing with 6%, but if you’re Rand Paul, you also can take some solace from this poll. Here are his numbers in depth.
While he doesn’t have as much room for growth as Scott Walker does, he still has much room for growth. Also, at 31% of young voters, he does the best out of all Republicans among that important category. Also, while Rand Paul has a segment of the Republican Party that doesn’t like him, he doesn’t approach Chris Christie and Jeb Bush levels of toxic, yet. Most important for Rand, his narrative that he can bring new voters to the GOP remains intact.
I would be remiss if I didn’t talk about Marco Rubio, whom Mike Bayham calls a Tier 1 candidate. If I’m Marco Rubio, I wouldn’t be too depressed either about my performance.
Here’s an opportunity to be a clean slate because no one knows who you are. Clearly Republicans are not holding the “Gang of 8” amnesty debacle against him and are willing to listen. The only question is, can he raise enough money to get into the race?
Keep in mind something about this poll, it is a national poll more than 10 months before the first votes are cast in Iowa. That’s a lifetime in such a crowded GOP presidential field. But the fundamentals of the race still boil down to Jeb Bush and the candidate who is anti-Jeb Bush.