A lot of ink was spilled in the last two weeks over the question of whether Scott Angelle’s media blitz has moved the needle and engineered a real horse-race between Angelle and the putative Republican frontrunner David Vitter for the runoff spot opposite John Bel Edwards in the October primary for governor. That came as a result of polling by Verne Kennedy, the long-time pollster operating out of Pensacola, which actually showed Angelle eclipsing Vitter.
There hasn’t been any other polling duplicating Angelle’s performance, though, and two recurring polls of the race – the Hayride/Marbleport poll and the Triumph Campaigns poll – show virtually the same thing; namely, that Vitter and Edwards have a significant lead over Angelle and Jay Dardenne, and a Vitter/Edwards runoff seems exceedingly likely.
Triumph Campaigns did a survey last week, conducted from Aug. 17-19 with 2,185 respondents, which once again reiterates that showing. Triumph’s result…
Very little has changed.
If the election was held today, it would
be a Vitter (31%)/Edwards (30%) run-off.
Angelle (14%) and Dardenne (13%)
are running a distant 3rd and 4th.
Only 11% remain undecided.
The Triumph polling indicates that since rising from 7 percent in March to 14 percent at the end of June Angelle hasn’t been able to move the needle much at all with his TV campaign over the last two months, while Dardenne has recovered a little since dropping from 15 percent in March to 11 percent at the end of June. Vitter (from 35 to 31) and Edwards (from 33 to 30) have lost a smattering of voters along the way, but nowhere near enough to matter.
The Kennedy polls show something different, but they’re an outlier.
See the Triumph Campaigns survey here.