Louisiana voters today went to the polls in the Louisiana Republican presidential primary. The polls had Donald Trump winning the state big, but can Ted Cruz pull off an upset? Stay tuned and check back as we have the results and analysis from all over the state.
7:33 PM Kevin Boyd Early voting is apparently up from last year, but I’ve heard that turnout today is actually down, especially in the morning. This has to be a glimmer of hope for anti-Trump forces. The results I’m going to be working from are Decision Desk’s Louisiana page, which is going to scrape from the Secretary of State’s site and will be augmented by volunteers from all across the state reporting results.
7:54 PM: Kevin Boyd: There doesn’t appear to be any exit polling data in Louisiana to work with. So we’ll have to work from the hard numbers when polls close in 5 minutes.
8:04 PM: Kevin Boyd: The Democrat primary has already been called for Hillary Clinton. She had such a commanding lead in the polls so it wasn’t even a tough call. Too close to call on the Republican side, especially with no exit polling to work with.
8:06 PM: Kevin Boyd: Trump dominant so far in what has come in, which is mostly central Louisiana. Cruz in second, with Rubio in 3rd and most importantly above 20%.
8:14 PM: Kevin Boyd: Most media outlets have already called Trump the winner of Louisiana. Cruz came in 3rd in the East Baton Rouge parish early vote, which was not a good result for him. Rubio is barely above the 20% threshold for delegates. We’ll see if that holds.
8:18 PM: Kevin Boyd: Here’s how dominant Trump is tonight. He nearly got 50% of the early votes in Lafayette Parish. He got 53% of the early votes in Livingston Parish. He’s breaking the 50% barrier in many of the smaller parishes across the state. Trump may be walking out of Louisiana will 2 delegates per Congressional district in some parts of the state.
8:22 PM: Kevin Boyd: As of right now, Rubio is at 19.3% which puts him below the delegate threshold of 20%.
8:25 PM: Kevin Boyd: The AP has just called Louisiana for Trump. So are we. Trump is leading in every parish that has turned in early votes so far and there’s no reason to expect that change.
8:38 PM: Kevin Boyd: Interestingly, there are more votes cast right now in the Democratic primary than the Republican one.
8:40 PM: Kevin Boyd: We’re starting to get some election day votes in, particularly in the smaller parishes. With 6% in, Trump 46%, Cruz 27%, Rubio 17%, Kasich 4%.
8:45 PM: Kevin Boyd: Trump won nearly 75% of all early votes in Jefferson Parish, which is Louisiana’s most populous parish.
8:50 PM: Kevin Boyd: Results are coming in fast now. With 16% in; Trump 45%, Cruz 30%, Rubio 15%.
8:52 PM: Kevin Boyd: Trump continues to do worse as more election day votes come in, so does Rubio. Kasich actually improves a bit, but the big winner is Cruz. Late deciders again breaking against Trump, we’re seeing all over the country.
8:59PM: Kevin Boyd: As it stands now, Marco Rubio is only at 14% and his vote has been declining. That means as of now he will not reach 20% threshold for statewide delegates. But we’re not ready to project that until some metro New Orleans numbers come in.
9:06 PM: Kevin Boyd: With 47% of the vote in, we now believe that Louisiana is too close to call. We are retracting our earlier call for Donald Trump. Trump 43%, Cruz 36%.
9:13 PM: Kevin Boyd: One of the reasons why I decided to retract our call of Louisiana for Trump is because Ted Cruz is starting to perform very well in north Louisiana and the Baton Rouge area. He is also making inroads in Jefferson Parish and St. Tammany Parish as their election day votes come in. Louisiana was called way too early.
9:19 PM: Kevin Boyd: With 65% of the vote in: Trump 42%, Cruz 37%.
9:22 PM: Kevin Boyd: We can project that Marco Rubio will not reach the 20% threshold needed to get delegates in Louisiana.
9:25 PM: Kevin Boyd: One of the reasons why Marco Rubio is not reaching 20% is because he underperformed in the areas he was targeting such as Northeast Louisiana and metro New Orleans. For example, right now with about half of Ouachita Parish in, which is where Monroe is, Rubio is running a distant 3rd with 12%. Cruz and Trump are virtually tied there.
9:30 PM: Kevin Boyd: This is why we retracted our call. With 74% in; Trump 42, Cruz 38%, Rubio 11%.
9:33 PM: Kevin Boyd: A key parish is completely in. Ted Cruz won Ascension Parish, a Baton Rouge suburb, 42%-40%. Another Baton Rouge suburb, Livingston Parish, and East Baton Rouge Parish remain out.
9:38 PM: Kevin Boyd: With just 57% of East Baton Rouge Parish in, Ted Cruz is leading 40% to 33% for Trump. With just 52% of Caddo Parish in (north Louisiana and contains Shreveport), Ted Cruz is leading 45% to 34% for Trump. With 72% of Bossier Parish in (suburbs of Shreveport), Ted Cruz is leading 44% to 38% for Trump. However, Cruz is losing in St. Tammany Parish 43% to 34%. But Cruz is being crushed in Jefferson Parish 45% to 29 with 75% in.
9:56 PM: Kevin Boyd: We are projecting Donald Trump the winner of Louisiana. After going through what’s left, we just don’t think Cruz can overcome the lead Trump has. Basically, what’s left statewide is metro New Orleans, East Baton Rouge Parish, and the Shreveport area. Trump’s lead is so massive in metro New Orleans that he’ll overcome any Cruz surge from his remaining areas. It’s clear Cruz won on election day itself, but Trump won the early vote.
10:02 PM: Kevin Boyd: Trump basically won the Catholic areas of the state while Cruz won the Protestant areas. Unfortunately for Cruz, the Catholics have the population.