…quite the contrary, in fact. The polling organization went into the field and measured the entire list of Senate races on offer in this year’s midterm election cycle, and what they found was that the Democrats are in a good bit of trouble.
No less than five Democrat incumbent senators are down more than five points against a generic GOP challenger, according to Morning Consult, and four more are in statistical ties.
Here are the numbers…
#NEWPoll Senate Races:#WVSen:
GOP 43 (+14)
Manchin (D – incumbent) 29#NDSen:
GOP 38 (+8)
Heitkamp (D- incu) 30#AZsen:
GOP 40 (+6)
Dem 34#INSen:
GOP 39 (+5)
Donnelly (D – incu) 34#MOsen:
Hawley (R) 38 (+5)
McCaskill (D – incu) 33#MTSen:
GOP 42 (+5)
Tester (D – incu) 37 https://t.co/WfHqAse811— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) May 3, 2018
More Of The 2018 @MorningConsult Senate Poll:#FLSen:
Scott (R) 38 (+1)
Nelson (D – Incumbent) 37#PASen:
Casey (D – incu) 39 (+1)
GOP Candidate 38#OHSen:
Brown (D – incu) 38 (+2)
GOP 36#VAsen:
Tim Kaine (D – incu) 39 (+3)
GOP 36— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) May 3, 2018
And Morning Consult’s report offered a decent bit of intel on the midterm cycle. Highlights include…
– Despite net positive approval ratings for many incumbents, a plurality of voters across key Senate states say it is time to elect someone new.
– The generic ballot favors Republicans in Democratic Senate held seats: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia.
– Among key Senate states, Trump’s approval is net positive in four states.
– The enthusiasm gap in blue districts compared to red districts continues to grow, where dark blue district voters have less favorable views of Trump than favorability levels of dark red districts.
– Generic Democratic candidates in lean blue districts have a much wider lead than Republicans in lean red districts.
That would indicate a perhaps more difficult field for the GOP in House races than in Senate races, but not necessarily – what we expect to see on Election Night is that Democrat-held House seats will be safer than ever before but that Democrats will be less capable of expanding their reach to red or purple districts.
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Which is less a reflection on Donald Trump and more a reflection on the current state of the Democrat Party, which has moved perilously far to the Left – in particular on cultural matters, as the Democrats don’t seem to have much of a viable economic message.
In any event, Morning Consult’s polling shows what’s most likely to happen is GOP gains in the Senate, with Joe Manchin, Joe Donnelly, Heidi Heitkamp, Claire McCaskill and Jon Tester in big trouble and Bill Nelson, Bob Casey, Sherrod Brown and Tim Kaine in some danger as well.
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