According to the recent polls, Bernie Sanders is surging not just nationally but in Iowa and New Hampshire. This is good news for Bernie considering that the Iowa Caucus is just 10 days away.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ campaign may be surging at just the right time.
With only 10 days until Iowans caucus, Sanders is seeing his poll numbers climb nationally and in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Nationally, Sanders is at his highest point since his post-announcement bump. Our CNN poll has him at 27% earlier this week. Most other polls don’t have nearly as high, though he seems to have crossed the 20% barrier. That’s big news because it puts a hole in the theory that Sanders couldn’t grow his support from the mid-teens he’s generally had.
Sanders is now the clear alternative to former Vice President Joe Biden in the national polls. Biden, who is still holding in the upper 20s, has seen his margin over Sanders shrink. Other Democrats such as Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg are stuck at 15% or below.
It is not inconceivable that Bernie Sanders could win the first three primary states. If he does that and somehow eats into Joe Biden’s strong support among black voters by the time South Carolina has its primary, Sanders could be on track to winning the Democratic nomination.
Many Trump supporters will read this and hope that it happens. After all, conventional wisdom says that Trump will beat Sanders because Sanders is too far left for the country. I wouldn’t bet on that.
For starters, Trump’s job approval remains an abysmal 44.6% and he has shown no ability to break through the 45% barrier for any stretch of time. Also, Bernie currently leads Trump in national polling of head to head matchups. In addition, Bernie Sanders has a highly motivated base of supporters. Bernie can be elected president.
But I don’t think Bernie will be elected president. If Bernie sweeps Iowa and New Hampshire, I expect the Democratic establishment to do whatever it can to defeat Bernie. If that happens, watch Mike Bloomberg because he will be the likely beneficiary of such a strategy.
While it is unlikely that Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee, he is surging at the right time. He should be favored to win Iowa and New Hampshire. Whether or not he can turn that into momentum in latter states has yet to be determined.