Though he has not announced yet, John Kennedy could be looking at a pretty strong tailwind going in to the race for David Vitter’s soon to be vacant Senate seat. SurveyUSA has a new poll out showing that Kennedy would almost handily eliminate all Republican challengers.
Subtracting unfavorability from favorability yields “Net Favorability.” Kennedy holds a +43 Net Favorability rating, which is strong across the board: +53 among Republicans, +45 among Independents, and +31 among Democrats. Kennedy’s strong net favorability is 2 ½ times as great as the candidate with the next-best numbers, and 14 times as great as his closest primary opponent.
In a primary election for United States Senate held today, Campbell takes 23% of the vote, Kennedy 21% – a result within the survey’s +/- 4.1% theoretical margin of sampling error.
The topline numbers…
I’m not exactly sure where Foster Campbell came from or why he is still happening to Louisiana, but if you look at the list of Republican candidates in this poll – Kennedy, John Fleming, Charles Boustany, Rob Maness, and Scott Angelle – only two of them don’t have much statewide recognition (Boustany, Fleming) but are still very popular in their districts.
That leaves Maness (who has announced), Angelle, and Kennedy. Maness picked up a not-insignificant percentage of the vote when he ran against Bill Cassidy and Mary Landrieu, and has been playing the part of conservative booster since. Angelle is fresh off a run for governor. Kennedy successfully defended his spot as Treasurer against… someone. I think. I can’t remember.
Anyway, I’m not sure I see a good reason for Kennedy to run for Senate when the 2019 gubernatorial race is his for the taking.